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东方财富2025一季报点评:自营投资好于预期,预计证券市占率提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongfang Caifu (300059.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's total revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 were 34.9 billion and 27.2 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 42% and 39%. The net profit slightly exceeded expectations due to better-than-expected investment income, while fund and securities income were slightly below expectations [6] - The report anticipates an increase in the company's market share in securities trading, driven by high trading activity among individual investors, and maintains a "Buy" rating [6][8] - The report also notes a decrease in the company's distribution income in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure on non-cash AUM [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected revenue is 149.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. The net profit is projected to be 11.93 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.1% [11] - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including expected EPS of 0.76 yuan for 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.4, 23.3, and 20.2 for 2025-2027 [10][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 95.1% in 2023 to 97.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain stable around 79% [11]