SACO(002025) 东方证券·2025-04-27 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 71.41 CNY, based on a 37x PE for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a revenue of 1.466 billion CNY, down 9.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million CNY, down 79.35% [1][8]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a temporary slowdown in defense demand, high inventory levels, and increased production costs due to high raw material prices [8]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company expects a recovery in profitability starting from Q2 2025, driven by improved defense demand and better revenue recognition [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 7.264 billion CNY, 8.423 billion CNY, and 9.674 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 44.6%, 15.9%, and 14.9% [3][9]. - The company's net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 883 million CNY in 2025, 1.073 billion CNY in 2026, and 1.267 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 154.5%, 21.5%, and 18.1% [3][9]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 38.1% to 38.2% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 12.2% in 2025 to 13.1% in 2027 [3][9]. Inventory and Orders - The company's inventory remains high at 1.771 billion CNY as of Q1 2025, a 76.38% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - There has been a significant increase in product orders, indicating a potential for improved output and customer satisfaction in the near future [8].