恒林股份：利润短期承压，期待后续高质量发展-20250427

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 2.95, 3.60, and 4.10 RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 11.03 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million RMB, showing no change year-on-year [2]. - The cross-border e-commerce business is a significant growth driver, with notable revenue contributions from various segments, particularly the OBM business, which grew by 77% to 5.94 billion RMB [2][4]. - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of "manufacturing going abroad and brand going abroad," aiming for quality growth while optimizing asset allocation and improving operational efficiency [4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 35.5 billion RMB from office furniture, 14.3 billion RMB from soft furniture, 10.2 billion RMB from panel furniture, 15.3 billion RMB from new material flooring, and 34.6 billion RMB from comprehensive home furnishings, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.4%, 10.8%, -8.8%, 2.9%, and 331.1% [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 18.5%, primarily due to rising shipping costs and price reductions for cross-border e-commerce inventory [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The company saw a decline in inventory by 4.3 billion RMB to 18.9 billion RMB in Q1 2025, indicating effective inventory optimization [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses for the full year of 2024 were 7.1%, 3.9%, 2.1%, and 0.4% respectively, with a notable decrease in sales expense ratio in Q1 2025 due to reclassification of delivery fees and discounts [3]. Future Projections - The company expects stable performance in traditional OEM business amid steady overseas demand and increasing trade frictions, while overall revenue growth in Q1 2025 is projected at 12.7%, mainly driven by cross-border e-commerce [2][4].