花旗：日本股市近期情景及二次探底风险

Investment Rating - The report suggests a conservative investment strategy focused on defensive stocks and sectors due to the anticipated double dip in Japanese stocks [1][4][35] Core Viewpoints - Japanese stocks are likely to experience a double dip in the short term, with potential for the next correction to fall below the recent bottom of TOPIX at 2,200 [2][3][19] - The report identifies three main risks contributing to this outlook: deterioration in US macroeconomic indicators, uncertainty in Japan-US tariff negotiations, and conservative initial guidance from companies during the FY3/25 earnings season [2][9][27] - A recovery in Japanese stocks may not occur until summer or later, contingent on specific conditions such as progress in tariff negotiations and aggressive monetary easing by central banks [27] Summary by Sections Short-term Risks - Japanese stocks currently lack upside momentum after a recent rebound to 2,500 from 2,200 [2][6] - The report highlights risks from US economic indicators, tariff negotiations, and conservative earnings guidance as key factors for the anticipated double dip [2][9][19] Market Correction Insights - The potential downside target for TOPIX is projected at 2,000, with a 12-month forward PER around 10x, aligning with historical downturn levels [3][19] - The report indicates that previous corrections of more than 10% have often led to double dips, particularly when rebounds do not exceed 50% of the initial correction [25][26] Defensive Investment Strategy - A focus on low-risk stocks, high EPS revisions, and strong balance sheets is recommended, as high-rated stocks are expected to underperform [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies likely to issue positive guidance and maintain dividends during the uncertain macroeconomic environment [35]