摩根士丹利：中国材料_2025 年第二季度展望 - 对股市的影响_建筑材料

Investment Rating - The industry view for China Materials is rated as Attractive [6] Core Insights - Cement is preferred due to supply discipline, price coordination, lower costs, and no impact from trade wars. The building materials sector is recovering from improved secondary property sales [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing margin expansion and has formed new alliances to focus on profit rather than volume. A 5-10% year-over-year decline in demand is expected, but margin recovery is anticipated due to lower coal prices and effective supply control measures [2][3] - Late-cycle building materials are recovering, supported by better secondary home sales and government initiatives. However, demand remains soft due to declining property starts and completions [3] - The float glass segment is facing weak fundamentals, with low demand from property developers and high supply levels continuing to pressure earnings [4] Summary by Sections Cement - Major cement players have agreed to prioritize profit over market share, leading to a healthier price recovery despite weak property demand. The industry is expected to see a margin recovery due to lower coal prices and effective supply control policies [2] - Top producers like Conch, CNBM, and CR Cement are likely to benefit from new supply control measures aimed at reducing overproduction [2] Building Materials - The late-cycle building materials sector is expected to see mild growth in new infrastructure and industrial investments, with demand improving from better secondary home sales and government programs [3] - Companies such as Yuhong, Weixing, and Lesso are identified as potential beneficiaries of this recovery [3] Float Glass - The float glass market is currently weak, with low order days at processing plants and high supply levels continuing to exert pressure on earnings [4] Price Targets and Ratings - Price targets for key companies include Anhui Conch (A) at RMB 37.40 with a 47% upside, Anhui Conch (H) at HKD 29.80 with a 35% upside, and China Resources Building Materials at HKD 2.30 with a 39% upside [7][11] - Ratings for companies in the cement sector are predominantly Overweight (OW), while Xinyi Glass and Zhuzhou Kibing Glass are rated Underweight (UW) due to weak fundamentals [11][12]