高盛：评估近期外国投资者抛售美国股票的情况

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or US equities Core Insights - Recent declines in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar have raised concerns about foreign investor selling, with an estimated $60 billion in US stocks sold since March 2025 [2][3] - Foreign investors held a record 18$17 trillion) of US equities at the start of 2025, indicating a significant potential for further selling [4][5] - Historical data shows that previous episodes of foreign selling have lasted an average of 11 months and accounted for approximately 0.6% of US equity market cap, translating to about $300 billion today [2][15] Summary by Sections Foreign Investor Activity - High-frequency fund flow data indicates that European investors have primarily driven the recent selling of US equities, while other regions have continued to buy [11][21] - The recent episode of foreign selling is shorter and shallower compared to historical averages, with only$63 billion sold over the last two months [15][21] Market Performance - Since early April 2025, the S&P 500 has declined by 4%, the trade-weighted US dollar has fallen by 3%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has increased by 18 basis points [3][9] - In contrast to past episodes of foreign selling, where US stock prices generally continued to rise, the current situation has seen a decline in both stock prices and the dollar [16][21] Historical Context - The report highlights that in previous instances of foreign selling, the S&P 500 rose in 7 out of 10 episodes, while the dollar typically appreciated by an average of 5% [16][21] - The most recent significant foreign selling occurred from mid-2023 to early 2024, totaling $260 billion, which contrasts with the current estimated selling of$63 billion [15][21]