高盛：中国经济展望-逆风前行

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, with 70% of this growth driven by exports and export-related manufacturing investment [7]. - For 2025, the report anticipates a decline in real GDP growth to 4.0%, influenced by elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods, which are expected to impose a 2.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [10][20]. - The report expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth in China due to challenges related to demographics, debt, and de-risking, although there are moderate upside risks from faster AI adoption [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for China's GDP growth, projecting 5.0% for 2024 and 4.0% for 2025, with a further decline to 3.5% in 2026 [15]. - It notes that domestic demand is expected to contribute positively, with consumption growth projected at 5.3% in 2025 [11]. Tariff Impact - The report indicates that the effective US tariff rate on China has reached 107%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic growth [20]. - It emphasizes that the ongoing policy easing in China may not fully offset the negative impacts of these tariffs [12]. Policy Measures - The report outlines expected policy measures, including further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, to support economic growth amid external pressures [31]. - It anticipates an increase in the augmented fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP in 2025, up from 10.4% in 2024 [33]. Sectoral Insights - The report discusses the property sector, noting that construction activity has sharply contracted compared to previous peaks, raising questions about the sustainability of any recovery [52][56]. - It also highlights that high-tech manufacturing has been a stable growth driver over the past decade, with expectations that these sectors will continue to outperform broader manufacturing [80][84].