摩根大通：跨行业_关税对关键行业的影响_美国关税对关键行业影响的自下而上分析

Investment Rating - The report provides a short-term investment focus on specific companies across various sectors, highlighting preferred and risk names based on tariff impacts [7][30]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the Trump administration's tariffs on nine major sectors, emphasizing the direct and indirect impacts on individual companies and their stock performance [6][30]. - The automotive sector is expected to face significant price increases due to tariffs, with an estimated 11.5% rise in US auto prices, translating to approximately $5,100 per vehicle [9][17]. - The report identifies key companies within each sector that are likely to be affected by tariffs, providing a detailed analysis of their potential performance [4][30]. Sector Summaries Autos and Auto Parts - Tariffs on automobiles could lead to a gross impact on operating profit ranging from 30% to over 100% for various automakers, with Toyota and Honda facing a manageable impact while Nissan and Mazda are at higher risk [4][9]. - Focus is placed on Toyota Motor for its resilience and ability to raise prices, while Bridgestone is noted for its high local production ratio [30][31]. Banks - The impact of tariffs on banks remains uncertain, but concerns over worst-case scenarios have eased, with a potential downside risk of slightly over 10% to sector earnings forecasts in a bearish scenario [4][33]. - Japan Post Bank is highlighted as a relatively stable option amidst tariff uncertainties [4][33]. Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - Major pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Astellas are expected to be heavily impacted by tariffs, while companies with lower US sales ratios may benefit from tariff avoidance [4][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased costs of goods sold (CoGS) affecting operating profits for medical device companies [4]. Technology - The technology sector's tariff impact is complex, with companies like NEC and Fujitsu expected to perform well due to limited exposure to tariffs [5][30]. - Sony Group is under close observation for potential price hikes on its products, particularly the PlayStation 5 [5][30]. Chemicals and Steel - In the chemicals sector, companies like Nippon Paint are expected to benefit from lower raw material prices, while the steel sector is anticipated to experience limited direct tariff impacts [5][30]. - Kobe Steel is noted for its resilience due to a significant earnings contribution from its machinery business [5][30]. Retail - The retail sector is advised to focus on drugstores and discount retailers, with companies like Asics and Fast Retailing facing risks from declining sales due to high tariff exposure [5][30]. - Seven & i Holdings is highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to its significant exposure to the US market [5][30].