摩根士丹利：从中国转移-对亚洲国家是不可能的任务

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Shifting business operations away from China is nearly impossible for other Asian economies due to China's central role as a market, supplier, and source of foreign direct investment [1][6][12] - Any trade restrictions imposed on China by other Asian economies would likely lead to retaliatory measures from China, severely impacting trade, capital flows, and growth prospects in the region [6][12][13] Summary by Sections Trade Restrictions and Challenges - The report analyzes which economies might be pressured to impose trade restrictions on China and concludes that most Asian economies outside of China would find it very difficult to implement such measures [3][6] - Economies like Vietnam, Thailand, and India, which have significant trade surpluses with the US and deficits with China, would struggle to impose tariffs on China due to their reliance on Chinese inputs [8][12] Economic Dependencies - China is a crucial source of final demand, inputs, and equipment for many Asian economies, particularly ASEAN countries, making it challenging for these economies to decouple from China [12][34] - Approximately 17% of exports from Asia (excluding China and Hong Kong) go to the US, while 16.6% go to China, highlighting the significant trade relationships within the region [12][26] Investment Flows - China accounts for 7.9% of foreign direct investment inflows into Asia (excluding China), with ASEAN economies being particularly reliant on Chinese investment [12][34] - The share of ASEAN in China's outward foreign direct investment has increased from 15% in 2018 to 20% in 2023, indicating growing economic ties [34][38] Supply Chain Implications - The report emphasizes that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods would disrupt the cross-border production networks in Asia, leading to inflation in consumer goods prices [12][30] - China holds a significant share in global exports of key products, such as mobile phones (37%) and computers (37%), meaning tariffs would likely lead to increased prices for these goods in other Asian economies [30][31] Conclusion - The report concludes that Asian economies are unlikely to impose trade and investment barriers against China, as it would severely disrupt their existing business models and economic growth [13][34]