摩根士丹利：中国情绪追踪 -修正关税冲击开始显现影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with GDP growth tracking below 4.5% year-on-year for 2Q 2025, down from 5.4% in 1Q 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs impacting trade with the US [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant trade impacts from the 125% reciprocal US tariffs on China, leading to a sharp decline in shipments to the US and a notable drop in China's container throughput and freight shipping prices [2][10]. - Consumer sentiment is weakening, with rising household concerns over jobs and salaries, resulting in reduced consumption appetite and a cooling property market [3][10]. - The report suggests that while tariff de-escalation may occur in the next 1-2 months, achieving a durable resolution remains challenging due to the complexity of bilateral issues [5][8]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - 2Q GDP growth is projected to slow significantly, with a forecast below 4.5% year-on-year, attributed to the adverse effects of US tariffs [1][10]. - The logistics data indicates a 64% week-on-week decline in ocean container bookings from China to the US in early April 2025 [2]. Consumer Sentiment - The AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey indicates initial signs of a secondary hit from US tariffs, with increased household concerns over job security and reduced consumption [3][19]. - Year-on-year sales of online home appliances and passenger cars have softened, and secondary housing sales have moderated more than seasonal trends would suggest [3][27]. Tariff Analysis - The report identifies low tariff elasticity for 30-40% of China's export products to the US, particularly in consumer electronics, which constitute 22% of China's exports to the US [4][21]. - The expectation is that US tariffs on China could be reduced to 60% by the end of June 2025, contingent on successful trade negotiations [5][8]. Policy Response - The report anticipates that Beijing will implement a front-loaded Rmb2 trillion stimulus package in 2Q 2025, with an additional Rmb1-1.5 trillion supplementary fiscal package expected in the second half of the year [10][32]. - As of April 2025, 36% of this year's government bond quota has been utilized, compared to an average of 20% in the past five years, indicating a proactive policy approach [10][29].