JUMPCAN(600566) 国金证券·2025-04-27 05:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.017 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant decline in performance, with revenue of 1.525 billion yuan, a 37% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to see easing pressure from high revenue bases starting from Q2 2025, which may positively impact its core products [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.017 billion yuan, a decline of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue drop to 1.525 billion yuan, a 37% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's core products faced pressure due to high revenue bases from the previous year and the impact of centralized procurement policies. Revenue from heat-clearing and detoxifying products was approximately 2.69 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, while pediatric products generated about 2.25 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully introduced four new products or partnerships in 2024, including a new drug in the respiratory field and a new pediatric drug in the ENT field [3]. Cash Flow and Dividends - As of Q1 2025, the company had over 12.5 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong cash position. The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 2.09 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.922 billion yuan, which represents 75.93% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.421 billion yuan and 8.139 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same years have also been adjusted to 2.263 billion yuan and 2.557 billion yuan, respectively. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.46, 2.77, and 3.13 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5].