儒竞科技（301525）：欧洲热泵有望持续回暖，汽车热管理成新增长点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The European heat pump market is expected to continue its recovery, while automotive thermal management is emerging as a new growth point for the company [1][5] - The company reported a decline in overall performance in 2024, with a revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 16.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, primarily due to a cooling heat pump market [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 351 million yuan, up 19.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 22.53% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [4][5] Summary by Sections Business Segments - HVAC/R Segment: In 2024, revenue was 817 million yuan, down 31.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.18%, down 3.19 percentage points. The decline was attributed to the heat pump industry's destocking cycle, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged [5] - New Energy Vehicle Thermal Management: Revenue reached 453 million yuan in 2024, up 47.23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.04%, up 3.61 percentage points. The company is expanding from cabin and battery thermal management to intelligent control of electric motors [5] - Servo Drive and Control Systems: Revenue was 27 million yuan in 2024, down 31.77%. The company continues to invest in technology development and brand building in niche applications and robotics markets [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue Forecast: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.15 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.7%, 38.6%, and 29.8% [7] - Net Profit Forecast: Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 270 million yuan, 389 million yuan, and 545 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.4%, 44.0%, and 40.2% [7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.86 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 5.78 yuan, respectively [7]