济川药业：业绩短期承压，分红表现超预期-20250427

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.017 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.532 billion RMB, down 10% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.525 billion RMB, reflecting a 37% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 440 million RMB, down 48% year-on-year [2]. - The company's core products faced pressure due to high base effects and centralized procurement policies, particularly impacting key products like Pudilan and pediatric medications [3]. - The company has made progress in product introductions, securing four new product agreements, which are expected to support long-term growth [3]. - The company has a strong cash position with over 12.5 billion RMB in cash and financial assets, and it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.09 RMB per share, totaling approximately 1.922 billion RMB, which is 75.93% of the net profit for 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.421 billion RMB and 8.139 billion RMB, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 2.263 billion RMB and 2.557 billion RMB [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.456 RMB, 2.774 RMB, and 3.126 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5].