Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华鑫证券·2025-04-27 07:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yanjing Beer [1] Core Views - The company continues to show strong performance with significant profit release, driven by revenue growth and cost control [5] - The core product, Yanjing U8, is experiencing over 30% growth, contributing to the overall sales structure optimization [6] - The company is expanding its high-end product offerings and has launched a new soda product to enhance market coverage [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were CNY 3.827 billion and CNY 165 million, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 7% and 61% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 43% and 6%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 5.6 and 2.3 percentage points [5] - Operating cash flow and sales collection showed robust growth, with operating cash flow reaching CNY 1.333 billion, up 49% year-on-year [5] Product Strategy - The beer sales volume reached 995,000 tons in Q1 2025, with the flagship product Yanjing U8 maintaining a growth rate of over 30% [6] - The company is focusing on high-end products and has developed a differentiated product matrix to meet consumer upgrade demands [6] - The launch of the new soda product, Best Soda, aims to capture additional market segments, particularly in dining scenarios [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high profit growth, with projected EPS of CNY 0.51, 0.62, and 0.75 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25, 21, and 17 for the respective years [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are CNY 15.537 billion, CNY 16.272 billion, and CNY 16.736 billion, with growth rates of 5.9%, 4.7%, and 2.8% [9]