GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 国信证券·2025-04-27 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][13][16] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, total revenue decreased by 14.0% year-on-year to 500 million yuan, with a net profit decline of 42.2% year-on-year to 50 million yuan [1][8][11] - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the bulk snack channel and overseas markets, with significant contributions from the distribution/e-commerce/other channels [1][9] - The company is currently in a multi-channel growth phase, focusing on consolidating its leading position in niche markets while enhancing shareholder returns [13][16] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 35.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and rising raw material costs [2][10] - The first quarter of 2025 faced high base pressure, with a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points due to sustained high palm oil prices [11][12] - The company expects total revenues of 2.61 billion yuan in 2025, 3.00 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.46 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 15.0% respectively [3][13][15] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 400 million yuan in 2025, 460 million yuan in 2026, and 550 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 5.9%, 16.3%, and 17.8% respectively [3][13][15] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 17 for 2025, 15 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [3][13][15] Market and Channel Insights - The bulk snack channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with revenue share projected to exceed 20% [1][9] - The overseas market, particularly in Vietnam, has shown promising growth, contributing nearly 200 million yuan in revenue for 2024 [1][9]