市场情绪监控周报(20250421-20250425):本周热度变化最大行业为美容护理、综合-20250427
华创证券·2025-04-27 09:16
- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" as a proxy variable for tracking market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market and multiplied by 10,000, with a range of [0,10000][7] - A simple rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, where the index with the highest heat change rate is bought at the end of each week, and if the "Others" group has the highest rate, the portfolio remains in cash. This strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a 2025 return of 7.5%[13][16] - The report also constructs two concept-based portfolios: a "TOP" portfolio selecting the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within the top 5 concepts with the largest heat change, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio selecting the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within the same concepts. The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a 2025 return of 17%[30][32]