TKGF(601233) 华泰证券·2025-04-27 09:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 12.45 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, representing a 51% increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The polyester industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand recovery and improved textile and apparel exports, alongside a slowdown in production capacity growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion (RMB 930 million after deducting non-recurring items), marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 25.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 200 million, reflecting a significant increase of 283% year-on-year [1][2]. Sales and Margins - The sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 was 9.68 million tons, 2.14 million tons, and 1.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +23%, +46%, and +13% [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and remained flat, respectively, leading to a slight decline in overall gross margin to 4.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to see a recovery driven by domestic demand and improved export conditions, with a favorable supply-demand balance expected as production capacity growth slows [3][4]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. Capacity and Projects - The company currently has a polyester polymerization capacity of 13 million tons per year and a polyester filament capacity of 13.5 million tons per year, holding an 18% market share in the domestic polyester filament market [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved in the Fujian and Anhui projects, expected to be completed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.38 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to a slow recovery in the polyester industry [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [5].