永兴材料（002756）：低成本云母提锂龙头，锂电和特钢双轮驱动

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a low-cost leader in mica lithium extraction, driven by dual engines of lithium battery and special steel businesses. The successful expansion of mining rights and anticipated growth in lithium salt production capacity are expected to enhance profitability as lithium prices stabilize and recover [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, has evolved from a stainless steel manufacturer to a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, maintaining a top-three market share in stainless steel long products. A strategic shift began in 2017 towards lithium battery materials, leading to significant growth in both stainless steel and lithium salt revenues [7][14]. 2. Lithium Sector - The company has secured two major mica lithium mines, achieving complete self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The mining rights for the Huashan mica mine have been expanded, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, enhancing resource security [7][47][51]. - The current lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 30,000 tons, with plans for expansion as mining and processing projects are completed. The production cost of lithium carbonate is projected to be significantly lower than industry averages, with a forecasted cost of 47,000 RMB/ton in 2024 [7][52][53]. - The lithium market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift. The average selling prices for lithium products are projected to be 66,000 RMB/ton in 2025, increasing to 71,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [7][58]. 3. Special Steel Sector - The company is a leading player in the stainless steel long products market, with stable production and sales volumes around 300,000 tons annually. The gross profit per ton of stainless steel has increased from 1,961 RMB/ton in 2021 to 2,809 RMB/ton in 2023, reflecting improved product mix and market positioning [7][35][39]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 890 million RMB, 1.23 billion RMB, and 1.64 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -14.3%, +37.1%, and +34.0%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 10 for the same years [6][8].