固定收益定期：震荡市的前景和可能的突破方向

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].