GYLS(600059) 华鑫证券·2025-04-27 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 539 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival [4] - The gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 37.15%, attributed to product mix optimization, with expectations for further improvement in H2 2025 as operational efficiencies are enhanced [5] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 5% to 377 million yuan, while ordinary liquor revenue also fell by 5% to 156 million yuan [6] - The company is focusing on consumer education and marketing efforts, particularly targeting younger demographics through platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [6] - Revenue from mature markets such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu saw declines of 10%, 10%, and 18% respectively, while other regions showed resilience with a 4% increase in revenue [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in external markets as it strengthens its marketing and distribution efforts [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.24, 0.27, and 0.31 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 36, 32, and 28 times [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 539 million yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, also down 5% [4] - The company expects to maintain a stable profit margin with a slight decrease in net profit margin to 10.90% [5] Product Revenue - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 377 million yuan, and ordinary liquor revenue was 156 million yuan, both down 5% [6] - The company is implementing small price increases for lower-end products to enhance profit margins [6] Market Dynamics - Mature markets are under pressure, but external markets are showing resilience with a 4% revenue increase [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in non-mature markets through enhanced marketing activities [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2,054 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.1% [11] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 218 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.9% [11]