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古越龙山:公司事件点评报告:业绩错期下边际承压,外埠市场韧性凸显-20250427
600059GYLS(600059) 华鑫证券·2025-04-27 12:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company experienced a 5% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with a revenue of 539 million yuan and a net profit of 59 million yuan, also down 5% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 37.15% due to product mix optimization, and further improvements are expected in H2 2025 as operational efficiencies increase [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in younger consumer segments through targeted marketing on platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, while also slightly increasing prices for lower-end products to improve profit margins [6] - Despite a challenging consumption environment in mature markets like Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, the company saw a 4% revenue increase in other regions, indicating resilience in external markets [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 539 million yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with net profit at 59 million yuan, also down 5% [4] - The gross margin increased to 37.15%, while net margin slightly decreased to 10.90% [5] Product Revenue - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 377 million yuan, down 5%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 156 million yuan, also down 5% [6] Market Dynamics - Revenue from mature markets (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu) decreased by 10%, 10%, and 18% respectively, while other regions showed a 4% increase in revenue [7] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.24, 0.27, and 0.31 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 36, 32, and 28 times [9][11]