Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current debt resolution cycle marks the final stage of the long - term debt resolution process. Compared with previous cycles, it shows continuity and index characteristics in debt resolution resources, and local governments are more willing to resolve debts. High - coupon bonds issued in previous years are the focus of replacement, and more issuers choose to negotiate early redemption of outstanding bonds with investors [3]. - As of April 25, 2025, there are 70 urban investment bonds planned for early redemption this year, with a total scale of 25.4 billion yuan. In terms of regional distribution, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan rank top three in the number of redemptions. In terms of rating distribution, 41 out of 70 bonds have a subject rating of AA, accounting for 59%, and the number of bonds with an implied rating of AA - is also 41 [3]. - Investors may face interest losses or the inability to realize potential capital gains during the early redemption process. The way and price of redemption determine the potential losses. Most cases choose face - value redemption, and only a small number of bonds provide compensation or are redeemed at net value. The proportion of bonds with a redemption price lower than the pre - announcement net value has increased to 56% in 2025, up about 7 percentage points from 2024 [4]. - Although the discount rate and proportion are rising, the passing rate of discount redemption plans has not decreased significantly. High - discount redemption cases are not rare. The difference in investor structure may be the main reason for the high passing rate of high - discount redemption plans [5][6]. - As of April 25, 2025, there are still more than 5,000 high - premium urban investment bonds in existence. Among them, 444 bonds' issuers have redeemed other bonds at face value since 2024, involving a scale of 334.3 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the discount redemption risk of high - premium bonds, especially for regions or entities with high premiums but a precedent of face - value discount redemption [7]. - Recently, the credit bond market has been fluctuating narrowly, and the credit spread has widened slightly. The necessity of risk prevention has increased in the short term. It is recommended to appropriately allocate anti - risk assets, such as high - grade assets with good liquidity or medium - and low - grade medium - duration assets with sufficient spread protection and relatively stable valuations [8]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Early Redemption - As of April 25, 2025, 70 urban investment bonds are planned for early redemption this year, with a total scale of 25.4 billion yuan. 19 provinces have cases of early redemption of urban investment bonds. Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan rank top three in the number of redemptions, with 10, 8, and 8 respectively [3]. - In terms of rating distribution, 41 out of 70 early - redeemed urban investment bonds have a subject rating of AA, accounting for 59%. In terms of implied rating, the number of AA - bonds is also 41, followed by 22 AA(2) bonds [3]. 2. Analysis of Redemption Methods and Losses - In terms of redemption methods, 41 bonds choose to be redeemed at face value in advance, accounting for 59%, 12 bonds are redeemed at face value plus compensation, 13 bonds are compensated at the net price of ChinaBond valuation, and 5 bonds have not announced the specific redemption plan [4]. - In 2025, 39 out of 70 cases have a redemption price lower than the pre - announcement bond net value, accounting for 56%, up about 7 percentage points from 2024. The median unit redemption price is 0.97 yuan lower than the pre - announcement net value, showing an upward trend in recent years [4]. 3. Analysis of the Passing Rate of Discount Redemption Plans - Since reaching the peak in 2020 (90.3%), the passing rate of discount redemption plans has decreased slightly year by year, remaining at around 80% and dropping to about 76.9% this year [5][6]. - Since 2024, there have been 182 discount redemption cases, and 60 cases have a discount of more than 2 yuan compared with the pre - announcement net price, accounting for 33.0%. Among them, 49 early - repayment plans passed the vote of the bondholders' meeting, with a passing rate of 81.7%, higher than the overall passing rate of discount redemption plans (78.6%) and the passing rate of all early - redemption plans (80.7%) [6]. 4. Analysis of High - Premium Urban Investment Bonds - As of April 25, 2025, there are more than 5,000 high - premium urban investment bonds in existence. 444 bonds' issuers have redeemed other bonds at face value since 2024, involving a scale of 334.3 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of grade, AA(2) and AA - bonds account for a relatively large proportion, with 146 and 132 respectively. In terms of term, 1 - 2 years and more than 3 years are the main distribution terms, with 155 and 144 respectively. In terms of region, Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan have relatively more sample bonds, with 57.6 billion yuan (48 bonds), 5.1 billion yuan (74 bonds), and 46.1 billion yuan (63 bonds) respectively [7]. 5. Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Recently, the credit bond market has been fluctuating narrowly, and the credit spread has widened slightly. The necessity of risk prevention has increased in the short term [8]. - It is recommended to appropriately allocate anti - risk assets, such as high - grade assets with good liquidity or medium - and low - grade medium - duration assets with sufficient spread protection and relatively stable valuations [8].
浅析信用债折价兑付
华安证券·2025-04-27 13:06