China Express(002928) 浙商证券·2025-04-27 13:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit in Q1 2025, achieving a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232% [1][5] - The operational data shows a 24% year-on-year increase in capacity in Q1 2025, with a passenger load factor of 79.8%, only a 1 percentage point decrease compared to the same period in 2019 [2] - The company has seen a recovery in utilization rates, which is expected to lead to better-than-expected performance, benefiting from the high proportion of tourism routes [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit of 0.27 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s other income in Q1 2025 was 0.36 billion yuan, a 48% increase year-on-year, primarily due to the continuous recovery of flight volumes [3] Capacity and Fleet Expansion - The company added 5 aircraft in 2024, bringing the total fleet to 75 aircraft, and added 2 more in Q1 2025, increasing the fleet to 77 aircraft [2] - The fleet consists of 39% A320 series, 47% CRJ900 series, and 14% C909 series [2] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.6 billion yuan, 1.0 billion yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a significant growth trajectory expected [5][6]