中原证券晨会聚焦-20250428

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive economic outlook driven by coordinated macro policies, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support innovation and consumption [4][9] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with certain sectors like software and communication leading, while others like precious metals and pharmaceuticals lag behind [13][15] - The electric equipment sector is facing challenges due to tariff impacts but shows potential for growth driven by domestic demand and export performance [20][21] - The automotive industry is witnessing significant growth in production and sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, supported by government policies [24][25] - The AI chip sector is making notable advancements, with domestic manufacturers benefiting from increased localization and innovation [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,295.06, with a slight decline of 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39% to 9,917.06 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.02 and 33.78, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [13][15] Economic Data - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 318,758 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, with industrial output and retail sales showing strong recovery [10][11] - The industrial sector's added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% [10] Sector Analysis - The brokerage sector saw a decline in March, with the index down by 2.10%, underperforming the broader market [17] - The electric equipment index fell by 5.79% in April, lagging behind the broader market due to tariff disruptions [20] - The automotive sector reported a production increase of 11.86% and sales growth of 8.2% in March, with new energy vehicles leading the charge [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "stronger than market" rating for the automotive sector, focusing on the ongoing smart vehicle technology advancements [26] - The electric equipment sector is rated as "in line with the market," with expectations for long-term growth despite short-term challenges [22] - The AI chip industry is also recommended for investment, given the advancements in domestic production and technology [29]