Hoshine Silicon(603260) 光大证券·2025-04-28 01:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 is under pressure due to the decline in prices of industrial silicon and other products [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 26,692 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.64% to 1,740 million yuan [5] - The report highlights significant growth in industrial silicon production and sales, with a production increase of 38.1% to 1,870,000 tons in 2024 [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing production costs and expanding into high-value-added areas such as organic silicon deep processing and silicon-based new materials [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 266.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.40 billion yuan, with a significant decline in profitability due to lower product prices [5][9] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 52.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.60 billion yuan, down 50.81% year-on-year [5][7] Production and Sales - The company’s industrial silicon revenue reached 138 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.10%, while organic silicon revenue was 122 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1% [6] - The production of industrial silicon in Q1 2025 was 36.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.1%, but sales volume increased by 53.2% [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 14.6%, a decline of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling product prices [7] - The average selling price of industrial silicon in Q1 2025 was 9,342 yuan per ton, down 29.8% year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure on earnings due to declining prices of industrial silicon and organic silicon products, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [9][10] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,897 million yuan, 2,600 million yuan, and 3,368 million yuan, respectively [10]