BYD(002594) 招银国际·2025-04-28 02:10Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for the company, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][3][16] Core Views - The company's 1Q25 earnings are on track, demonstrating high earnings quality despite ongoing vehicle model transitions. Sales volume and gross margin are expected to meet full-year forecasts [1][9] - New models such as Han L, Tang L, and Titanium 3 are anticipated to boost sales from 2Q25. The company may engage in a price war in 2H25 to maintain market share, but its earnings quality is expected to keep net profit per vehicle above RMB10,000 [1][9] - The company’s overseas sales volume reached 0.2 million units in 1Q25, exceeding prior expectations [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are RMB 970,122 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24.8% [2][11] - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 57,457 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.7% [2][11] - The gross margin for FY25E is forecasted at 19.7%, with operating profit expected to be RMB 71,663 million [11][12] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 19.09, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.5x [2][11] Price Target - The target price for the company's H shares is set at HK397.00 [3][9] Quarterly Performance - In 1Q25, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, with a gross margin of 20.1% [9][10] - Sales volume in 1Q25 was 1,000,804 units, a 59.8% increase year-on-year [10]