摩根士丹利：中国经济-ZZJ会议，适度刺激，开启新节奏

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest, reactive stimulus for technology and consumption sectors, with expectations of a supplementary package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion in the second half of the year [2][8]. Core Insights - The Politburo has committed to coordinating domestic policy and addressing trade war impacts through technology investments and a gradual shift towards consumption [2]. - There is an emphasis on faster implementation of the Rmb2 trillion stimulus approved by the National People's Congress, including quicker issuance of government bonds and potential cuts to reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates [3]. - New initiatives are anticipated, including increased funding support for consumer goods trade-in programs and a new relending tool aimed at service consumption and elderly care [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Policy Coordination - The leadership aims to tackle tariff shocks with tech investments and a gradual pivot towards consumption [2]. Stimulus Implementation - The Politburo has urged for a swift rollout of the Rmb2 trillion stimulus, with measures to boost total social financing (TSF) growth by 0.6-0.9 percentage points by the end of Q2 [3]. Future Initiatives - A supplementary package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion is expected in the second half of the year, which may not fully offset the impacts of tariff shocks [8]. - Targeted support for exporters is estimated to provide rebates of unemployment insurance up to approximately 0.1% of GDP [9].