摩根士丹利：中国经济-关税影响乍现

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward adjustment in GDP growth forecast for China, expecting a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to below 4.5% in Q2 2025 due to tariff impacts and reduced trade volume with the US [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the high tariffs imposed have significantly affected trade, with a 64% month-on-month decrease in container bookings from China to the US in April 2025 [2][3]. - Consumer confidence in real estate and overall spending is weakening, with survey data showing increased concerns about income and employment among consumers [3][20]. - The report anticipates a potential reduction in tariffs in the coming months, with expectations of a 60% average reduction by the end of June 2025, and a further 34% reduction by the end of the year, although achieving a comprehensive and lasting resolution remains challenging [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report projects a significant economic downturn in Q2 2025, with the GDP growth rate expected to drop below 4.5% due to the adverse effects of tariffs and declining domestic demand [9][2]. - It notes that the high tariffs have led to a contraction in trade volume, particularly with the US, impacting various sectors including consumer electronics and automotive [2][3]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has been notably affected, with a marked decline in sentiment regarding real estate and consumer spending, as evidenced by survey results indicating fears of job loss and reduced income [3][20]. - The report mentions that the sales growth of online appliances and passenger vehicles has slowed, reflecting the broader economic concerns [3][25]. Trade Relations - The report discusses the complexities of US-China trade relations, indicating that while there is a window for tariff reductions, the path to a comprehensive agreement is fraught with difficulties [4][9]. - It emphasizes that a significant portion of Chinese exports to the US (30-40%) are less elastic to tariffs, particularly in sectors where the US has a high dependency on Chinese imports [3][15].