摩根士丹利：日本央行和泰国央行维持政策不变；中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）将走弱

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [2][3]. Core Insights - The NBS Manufacturing PMI for China is expected to decline to 49.6 in April from 50.5 in March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing due to US tariffs and trade uncertainties [3][7]. - Private sector credit in Australia is projected to increase by 0.6% month-on-month in March, leading to an annual growth rate of 6.6% year-on-year [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia is anticipated to rise by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, maintaining an annual rate of 2.4% year-on-year [7]. - House prices in Australia are expected to see a slight increase in April, supported by expectations of further rate cuts [7]. - Korea's exports are forecasted to decline by 3.6% year-on-year in April, reflecting the impact of steel and auto tariffs [8]. - Taiwan's GDP is projected to rebound to 3.1% year-on-year in Q1, driven by pre-tariff export orders, although a slowdown is expected in Q2 [9]. Summary by Sections Australia - The report anticipates a trade surplus of A$3.8 billion in March, with exports partially rebounding [7]. - Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.1% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year in March, marking the strongest annual rate since December 2024 [7]. China - The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to soften to 49.6 in April, indicating challenges in production and new orders due to external trade pressures [3][7]. Korea - Exports are expected to show a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in April due to tariff impacts [8]. Taiwan - GDP growth is forecasted to rebound to 3.1% year-on-year in Q1, driven by strong export orders ahead of tariffs [9]. Japan - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance, with labor market conditions remaining tight [11].