CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 开源证券·2025-04-28 06:43Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to falling coal and electricity prices, but its high dividend yield highlights long-term investment value [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year and 17.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 11.95 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year and 5.1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 54.88 billion, 55.59 billion, and 56.27 billion yuan respectively, with an expected EPS of 2.76, 2.80, and 2.83 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 8.25 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and sold 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, down 11.7% year-on-year, while the cost was 353 yuan per ton, down 13.1% year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 0.4393 yuan per kWh, down 4.5% year-on-year [4] Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76.53% in 2024, up 1.31 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a current dividend yield of 5.8% [5] - A shareholder return plan for 2025-2027 aims to increase the minimum cash dividend payout ratio by 5 percentage points to 65% [5] Growth Potential - The company has three major coal mines under construction, expected to add significant production capacity by 2028 [5] - The stable profitability and high dividend yield position the company as a benchmark in the industry [3][5]