Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to multiple factors, including disappointing sales during major promotional events and high marketing costs on platforms like Douyin. The net profit for 2024 is expected to decline by 33.53% year-on-year, while revenue is projected to grow by 3.87% [1][7] - The main brand, Winona, continues to have strong consumer recognition in the sensitive skin care sector, despite short-term performance challenges. The company is actively expanding into the medical beauty and health sectors, which may drive long-term growth [4][18] - The company is currently in a brand matrix development and channel strategy transformation phase, with high expense ratios impacting profitability during this transition [4][18] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 57.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, and a net profit of 5.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.53% [1][7] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 9.49 billion, down 13.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.28 billion, down 83.97% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.74%, a slight decrease of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 shows an improvement in gross margin to 77.47% [12][3] Brand and Channel Performance - In 2024, the main brand Winona generated revenue of 49.1 billion, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, while the sub-brand Winona Baby saw a revenue increase of 34.03% to 2 billion [2][8] - Online sales channels achieved revenue of 39.12 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, with significant growth on platforms like Douyin and JD [9][2] - The offline channel revenue decreased by 10.72% year-on-year to 12.74 billion, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online platforms [9][2] Expense and Profitability Metrics - The sales expense ratio for 2024 is projected to increase by 2.71 percentage points year-on-year to 49.97%, reflecting higher marketing investments [12][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 50% of net profit [1][7] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 6.87 billion and 8.22 billion, respectively, due to prolonged new product development cycles and high expense ratios during the transformation period [4][18]
贝泰妮（300957）：多因素致短期业绩承压，积极管理变革静待拐点出现