洽洽食品（002557）：短期业绩承压，或逐步改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.8%, with a significant drop to 19.5% in Q1 2025, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pressures in the nut market [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 7.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.79% compared to the previous year [7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 11.9%, while for Q1 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.9% [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Qiaqia Foods has been expanding its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, with a focus on Southeast Asia and entry into the Costco channel in Canada [4]. - The company is actively managing its sales and administrative expenses in response to the revenue pressures experienced in Q1 2025 [5].