CPIC(601601) 开源证券·2025-04-28 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is 9.63 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, primarily due to fluctuations in the bond market affecting investment income [4] - The new business value (NBV) for Q1 2025 is reported at 5.78 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, driven by strong growth in the bancassurance channel [4][5] - The report maintains the forecast for NBV in 2025 at 14.56 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.1% year-on-year to 9.63 billion, with insurance service performance at 8.6 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year, and investment service performance at 5 billion, down 16% year-on-year [4] - The company's total assets at the end of Q1 2025 are reported at 2.81 trillion, with a net investment yield of 0.8%, unchanged year-on-year [6] - The insurance service revenue for 2025 is projected to be 297.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [7] Business Segment Insights - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase, with new single premiums reaching 20.1 billion, up 131% year-on-year, while individual insurance new premiums decreased by 15% to 13.7 billion [5] - The property and casualty insurance segment achieved a premium income of 63.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with a combined ratio of 97.4%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 0.49 for 2025, 0.45 for 2026, and 0.41 for 2027, with a dividend yield of 3.5% [4] - The forecasted return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 13.74%, with a projected net profit of 48.52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [7]