中国神华（601088）：下游需求疲软致业绩承压，内增外延仍有成长空间

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19][24] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% [1][9] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy was completed in February 2025, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements [1][9] - The company aims for stable growth in 2025, with plans to repurchase H-shares to enhance market confidence and continue asset injections [4][18][19] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The coal production in Q1 2025 was 8.25 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 9.93 million tons, down 15.3% [2][10] - The average selling price for self-produced coal was 484 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan, and for purchased coal was 586 yuan per ton, down 91 yuan [2][10] - The coal business achieved a gross profit of 15.2 billion yuan, a decline of 22.5% year-on-year [2][10] Power Business - The company generated and sold 50.42 billion and 47.47 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in Q1 2025, both down 10.7% year-on-year [3][16] - The average selling price of electricity was 386 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 5.6% [3][16] - The gross margin for the power segment was 15.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][16] Transportation Business - Revenue from the railway, port, and shipping segments in Q1 2025 was 10.5 billion, 1.6 billion, and 0.7 billion yuan, respectively, showing declines of 10.5%, 7.2%, and 41% [4][16] - The total profit for the railway, port, and shipping segments was 3.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 0.03 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year decreases [4][16] Financial Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 53.6 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][19] - The company is recognized as a leading coal-based integrated energy enterprise with strong operational stability and a high dividend rate [5][19]