Ingenic(300223) 长城证券·2025-04-28 11:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Beijing Junzheng, expecting a price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company has turned a profit in Q1 2025, with a significant recovery in its non-net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by a rebound in the automotive and industrial sectors [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding into advanced DRAM processes and 3D DRAM products aimed at AI applications, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 7.03% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 31.84%, primarily due to weak market demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue is projected at 4,531 million CNY, with a decline to 4,213 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 5,109 million CNY in 2025 [14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 537 million CNY in 2023 to 366 million CNY in 2024, before rising to 502 million CNY in 2025 [14]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 36.40%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.12 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.76 CNY in 2024, and then recovering to 1.04 CNY in 2025 [14]. - Valuation Ratios: - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 59.1 in 2023 to 42.4 by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings recover [14]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - ROE is projected to decline from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 5.4% by 2027 [14]. Product Segmentation - Memory Chips: - Revenue from memory chips is expected to be 25.89 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 61.47% of total revenue, despite a year-on-year decline of 11.06% [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue for memory chips was 6.63 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.90% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. - Computing Chips: - Revenue from computing chips is projected at 10.90 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.65% [3]. - Q1 2025 revenue for computing chips was 2.70 billion CNY, showing a decrease of 2.65% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Analog and Connectivity Chips: - Revenue from analog and connectivity chips is expected to grow by 15.31% year-on-year to 4.72 billion CNY in 2024 [3].