GUJING(000596) 中邮证券·2025-04-28 13:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2025, driven by solid domestic demand and strategic market development [4][9] - The revenue targets for 2025-2027 are projected at 255.05 billion, 280.64 billion, and 321.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.17%, 10.03%, and 14.40% respectively [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60.75 billion, 68.27 billion, and 80.37 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10.11%, 12.38%, and 17.72% [9][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 167.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 883 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 5.29 billion shares, with 4.09 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 36.6%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 16.01 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 235.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [4][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 79.9%, with a net profit margin of 23.4% [4] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 31.72 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.49%, an increase of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product and Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue from different product lines is expected to be 180.86 billion from aged original liquor, 22.41 billion from Gujing liquor, and 25.38 billion from other products [6] - Online and offline channels are projected to generate revenues of 7.72 billion and 228.06 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.81% and 16.81% [6] - The number of distributors increased to 5,089, up by 448 year-on-year, indicating a strengthening distribution network [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 11.49, 12.92, and 15.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 22.4% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 21.3% by 2027 [11][14]