债市情绪面周报（4月第4周）：半数固收卖方看多债市-20250428

Core Insights - The report indicates a generally optimistic sentiment towards the bond market, with a notable number of institutions maintaining a bullish outlook while exercising caution in their strategies. The upcoming economic data in April is expected to confirm the current market conditions, and the report suggests holding onto bonds as a favorable strategy during the holiday period [2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - 43% of institutions hold a bullish view, citing keywords such as easing liquidity, approaching rate cuts, and potential pressures from tariffs on the economy [12]. - 53% of institutions maintain a neutral stance, with concerns about the short-term effectiveness of monetary policy and the need for economic data to disrupt the current equilibrium [12]. - 3% of institutions are bearish, focusing on the stabilization of the economy and expectations of tariff exemptions [12]. Group 2: Bond Futures Tracking - Bond futures prices have generally declined, with TS/TF/T/TL contracts recording prices of 102.28, 105.94, 108.77, and 119.68 respectively, reflecting decreases from the previous week [25]. - The trading volume for TS contracts has increased, while other futures contracts have seen a decline in volume, indicating a mixed trading environment [25]. - The overall trading volume for TS/TF/T/TL contracts was recorded at 827 billion, 548 billion, 722 billion, and 1237 billion respectively, with TS showing an increase [25]. Group 3: Yield Curve and Interest Rate Insights - The report highlights a potential opportunity in the 30Y-10Y yield spread, suggesting that investors may benefit from extending duration as interest rates are expected to decline [2]. - The IRR for TS/TF/T/TL contracts has shown a mixed trend, with TS declining to 2.06% while others have increased, indicating varying market expectations [46]. - The report suggests that if the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be opportunities for short-term bonds to experience downward pressure on rates [52].