GWMOTOR(601633) 开源证券·2025-04-28 14:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.6% in Q1 2025, with a net profit drop of 45.6% due to product replacement cycles and significant investments in new models and direct sales systems [3][4] - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the strong new product cycle and ongoing expansion in overseas markets, particularly with the Tank and Wey brands [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 400.19 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 17.51 billion yuan, down 45.6% [3] - Sales volume in Q1 decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, with notable declines in Haval, Tank, and Ora brands, while Wey brand sales increased by 38.7% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 139.72 billion yuan (-4.71%), 169.78 billion yuan (-2.70%), and 189.95 billion yuan (-8.08%) respectively [3] Product and Market Development - The company is set to launch several new models, including the second-generation Haval Big Dog and the new Tank 500, which are expected to drive sales growth [4] - Great Wall Motors is actively expanding its overseas presence, with new factories in Thailand and Brazil, and plans to adapt its product offerings for diverse markets [4] - The company is enhancing its smart driving technology, with the Wey brand's Blue Mountain NOA system being rolled out nationally [4] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 14.0, 11.6, and 10.3 respectively [3][6] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.9%, 13.0%, and 8.9% respectively [6][9]