新宝股份（002705）：Q1抢出口效应强，Q2或面临挑战

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 16.47 [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 16.82 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit of RMB 1.05 billion, up 7.75% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 10.36% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 43.02% year-on-year. The performance for 2024 met expectations [1][2] - The company is a leader in small appliance exports, benefiting from strong demand in Q1 2025, although potential challenges from increased tariffs in the U.S. may impact Q2 performance. The company has significant experience in product planning, industrial design, and rapid production, indicating resilience in long-term export sales [1][3] - The domestic sales faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 4.5% in 2024 and a further decline of 4.9% in Q1 2025. The main brands are less sensitive to the new replacement subsidy policies, leading to a slower recovery compared to the industry [2] - The company's export growth was strong in 2024, with quarterly growth rates of 29.7%, 25.1%, 20.3%, and 14.1% respectively. However, the growth rate is expected to face pressure in Q2 2025 due to increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. [3][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of low-margin exports. The gross margin improved to 22.42% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company has initiated a share buyback and declared a dividend of RMB 0.45 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [1] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 17.69 billion, RMB 18.89 billion, and RMB 20.15 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 5.16%, 6.78%, and 6.70% [10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.43, RMB 1.57, and RMB 1.75 respectively [10] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies is projected at 15x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE of 11.5x, leading to a revised target price of RMB 16.47 [5]