高盛：中国-美国关税上调对劳动力市场的影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The heightened US tariffs are expected to significantly impact the Chinese economy and labor market, with a focus on labor market stability as a critical concern for policymakers [2][3] - The report estimates that approximately 16 million jobs are involved in the production of goods exported to the US, with significant vulnerabilities in sectors such as wholesale and retail sales, communication equipment, apparel, and chemical products [2][4][30] - The outlook for US-China tariffs and Chinese exports remains uncertain, with potential for a significant contraction in exports if high tariffs persist [4][38] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff increases have led to a reduction in the GDP growth forecasts for China, with projections for 2025 and 2026 lowered by 0.5 percentage points to 4.0% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Historical data indicates that during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, a similar decline in exports resulted in substantial employment pressures, particularly among low-skilled migrant workers [2][7] Labor Market Analysis - The report utilizes input-output analysis to quantify the impact of US tariffs on the labor market, highlighting that labor market pressures are expected to increase if exports decline sharply [2][27] - The labor intensity of US-bound goods exports is higher than that of the overall manufacturing sector, indicating that job losses could be significant in affected industries [20][26] Policy Responses - In response to potential unemployment pressures, the Chinese government has indicated plans to enhance unemployment insurance rebates and implement a comprehensive employment stabilization package [3][39] - Historical trends suggest that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) typically cuts policy rates in response to labor market weaknesses, with expectations for monetary easing in the near future [39][40]