高盛：市场情报：没更糟就是好消息

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the market, with the S&P 500 on track for a 3.9% gain for the week [1] Core Insights - The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey shows an increase in sentiment to 52.2 from 50.8, while near-term inflation expectations have decreased to 6.5% from 6.7% [2] - The S&P 500 index is currently 10% below its mid-February high but has risen 13% from its April 7 low, reflecting a constructive market outlook [3] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to counteract any economic slowdown remains, as inflation has not shown significant increases, with March Core CPI inflation reported at only 0.06% month-over-month [3] - Despite recent positive trends, risks to growth, inflation, and corporate earnings persist, with a recession probability estimated at 45% [4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has shown a weekly change of +4.0%, while the DJIA and NASDAQ have also experienced gains of 2.4% and 6.0% respectively [19] - The report highlights that corporate earnings growth may slow due to the impact of tariffs and a slower growth trajectory for the US economy, with the S&P 500 2025 EPS forecast lowered to $253 [8] Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include core retail sales, spending on imports, manufacturing production, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate [13] - The report anticipates continued softness in survey data before hard data begins to weaken around mid-to-late summer [13] Future Outlook - The report suggests that inflation may rise due to high tariffs, with a forecasted acceleration in PCE inflation to around 3.5% year-on-year over the next six months [8] - Upcoming macro and micro data releases are expected to provide further insights into the labor market, inflation, and corporate earnings [17][18]