高盛：美国经济分析：贸易战与生产中断风险

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report forecasts a soft GDP growth of 0.5% for 2025 Q4/Q4, primarily due to the negative impacts of tariffs, which are likened to a tax hike, tightening financial conditions, and increasing business uncertainty [3][6] - It identifies three main risks: higher production costs due to tariffs, high foreign retaliatory tariffs, and loss of access to rare earth elements, all of which could disrupt production and employment [3][34] Summary by Sections Economic Impact of Tariffs - The report estimates that tariff-driven cost increases could raise US production costs by 5-15% in some industries, significantly affecting their competitiveness [11][17] - It highlights that tariffed US exports to China account for approximately 0.5% of US GDP and support over 750,000 jobs across various sectors [28][30] Risks from Retaliatory Tariffs - China's 125% tariff on US exports is expected to block most exports, posing a significant risk to industries reliant on the Chinese market [26][28] - The report notes that while other countries have been restrained in retaliating against US exports, the high tariff rates could lead to further economic disruptions if not addressed [30][43] Rare Earth Element Restrictions - The report discusses the potential impact of China's restrictions on rare earth exports, which could disrupt production in industries that rely heavily on these materials [34][35] - It estimates that disruptions could affect between 200,000 to 500,000 jobs depending on the severity of the restrictions [35] Sector Analyst Insights - A survey of sector analysts indicates that about half expect trade-war related production disruptions and layoffs, with concerns primarily centered around retaliatory tariffs [39][41] - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding how companies will adapt to these risks, with potential responses including halting production or seeking alternative markets [39][41] Monitoring Trade War Risks - The report introduces trade war trackers to monitor industrial production and payrolls in the most affected industries, providing a framework to assess ongoing impacts [44][47] - It suggests that the current high tariff rates could lead to unintended consequences, further risking GDP forecasts if not mitigated [43][44]