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摩根士丹利：人形机器人-到 2050 年将有 10 亿台机器人，创造 5 万亿美元营收，中国处于领先地位
300024SIASUN(300024) 摩根·2025-04-29 02:39

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla with a price target of 410,indicatingapositiveoutlookonthecompany′spotentialinthehumanoidroboticssector[3].CoreInsights−Theglobalhumanoidmarketisprojectedtoreach1billionhumanoidsand410, indicating a positive outlook on the company's potential in the humanoid robotics sector [3]. Core Insights - The global humanoid market is projected to reach 1 billion humanoids and 5 trillion in annual revenue by 2050, significantly surpassing the global auto industry [1][34]. - The report emphasizes that the market for humanoid robots will be materially larger than the global auto industry, with an estimated 4.7trillioninsalesby2050,nearlydoubletherevenuesofthe20largestglobalautoOEMsin2024[2].−Chinaispositionedasadominantplayerinthehumanoidroboticsmarket,withsignificantinvestmentsfromlegacyautomanufacturersdiversifyingintohumanoidrobots[3][7].MarketProjections−By2036,approximately23.7millionhumanoidsareexpectedtobeadoptedglobally,withsignificantcontributionsfromvariousincomeclassifications[22].−By2040,thisnumberisprojectedtoincreasetoaround134.4million,andby2050,totaladoptionsareexpectedtoreach1billion[22][24].−Thereportoutlinesthatthehumanoidmarketcouldreach4.7 trillion in sales by 2050, nearly double the revenues of the 20 largest global auto OEMs in 2024 [2]. - China is positioned as a dominant player in the humanoid robotics market, with significant investments from legacy auto manufacturers diversifying into humanoid robots [3][7]. Market Projections - By 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoids are expected to be adopted globally, with significant contributions from various income classifications [22]. - By 2040, this number is projected to increase to around 134.4 million, and by 2050, total adoptions are expected to reach 1 billion [22][24]. - The report outlines that the humanoid market could reach 211 billion by 2035 and $1.2 trillion by 2040, with a 6-year replacement cycle factored into the estimates [34]. Implications for Legacy Manufacturing - The report discusses the decline of legacy manufacturing and the emergence of new entrants in the humanoid robotics space, suggesting a shift in investment strategies among traditional manufacturers [3]. - It highlights that US manufacturers may need to adapt significantly to remain competitive in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly in response to China's advancements [7]. Adoption Estimates - The report provides detailed adoption estimates by income classification, indicating that by 2050, low-income countries will adopt approximately 14 million humanoids, while high-income countries will adopt around 296 million [22][23]. - The cumulative adoption of humanoids is expected to vary significantly across regions, with East Asia and Pacific projected to lead in adoption numbers [24][32]. Performance of Humanoid-Related Stocks - The "Humanoid 100" list includes public companies involved in the humanoid market, which has outperformed the S&P 500 by 10.5 percentage points year-to-date [17]. - Notably, seven of the top ten performers on this list are China-based companies, reflecting strong market sentiment and government support for humanoid robotics [17][20].