KPC(600422) 国金证券·2025-04-29 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Despite short-term performance pressure due to channel transformation, the company is expected to benefit from product volume potential under the empowerment of China Resources Sanjiu, with an overall positive operational trend anticipated [4]. - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on brand development and product volume growth, particularly with its strategic products like "Kunzhong Medicine 1381" and "777 Xuesaitong Soft Capsules" [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.61 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million RMB, down 31.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to multiple factors, including channel transformation and the impact of national Chinese medicine procurement expansion [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is in the final phase of integration with China Resources Sanjiu, with further breakthroughs in channel transformation expected to enhance terminal coverage and performance in Q2 2025 [2]. - The focus on brand positioning as a "leading national medicine" and the emphasis on terminal coverage and sales are expected to drive healthy growth for core products [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.072 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [4].