CMS(600999) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 04:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with target prices set at HKD 15.22 and RMB 21.99 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.713 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.308 billion, up 6.97% year-on-year. The investment performance has declined amid market volatility, but other business segments have shown good growth, particularly in brokerage services [1][2]. - The average daily trading volume for the entire market reached RMB 1.75 trillion in Q1 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 71%. The company has enhanced its wealth advisory team's professional service capabilities and increased support for ETF products, leading to a brokerage net income of RMB 1.966 billion, up 49% year-on-year [2][3]. - The asset management segment remains strong, with net income of RMB 222 million in Q1 2025, a 43% increase year-on-year. The investment banking and interest income have also shown significant recovery, with net income from investment banking reaching RMB 187 million, up 112% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved investment income of RMB 1.512 billion in Q1 2025, a decline of 26% year-on-year, primarily due to bond market fluctuations. The financial investment scale at the end of the quarter was RMB 362.7 billion, a slight decrease of 3% from the beginning of the year [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.24, with a book value per share (BPS) of RMB 15.71. The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratios for comparable companies are 1.28 for A-shares and 0.68 for H-shares [5][7]. Valuation Analysis - The report adjusts the investment income assumptions downward due to ongoing bond market volatility, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 revised to RMB 1.24, RMB 1.37, and RMB 1.56, reflecting decreases of 8%, 9%, and 10% respectively. The target PB is set at 1.4 for A-shares and 0.9 for H-shares, with a target price of RMB 21.99 and HKD 15.22 [5][6].