xilinmen(603008) 西南证券·2025-04-29 04:10Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company, but it suggests continuous attention due to its potential for steady growth in the AI and new business sectors [1][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 87.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.2 billion yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on AI and new business opportunities, with the launch of AI smart mattresses and electric bed frames, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan [7][8]. - The company’s mattress segment showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 5.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 94.3 billion yuan, 101.3 billion yuan, and 107.8 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8.0%, 7.5%, and 6.5% [2][9]. - Net Profit Forecast: Projected net profits for the same years are 3.47 billion yuan, 3.69 billion yuan, and 3.95 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.5%, 6.4%, and 7.1% [2][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to increase from 0.85 yuan in 2024 to 1.04 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. Business Segment Performance - Mattress Segment: Revenue is projected to grow from 5.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.00 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [8]. - Soft Beds and Accessories: Revenue is expected to decline slightly, from 2.44 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.41 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - Sofas: Revenue is forecasted to grow from 719 million yuan in 2024 to 883 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a recovery in demand [8]. Market and Channel Analysis - Sales Channels: The company reported revenue from distribution stores, bulk business, and online sales of 32.1 billion yuan, 34 billion yuan, and 19.8 billion yuan, respectively, with online sales growing by 9.9% [7][8]. - Geographical Performance: Domestic sales decreased by 6.4% to 64.7 billion yuan, while international sales increased by 27.5% to 21.3 billion yuan [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 18 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [2][9]. - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.58 in 2024 to 1.24 in 2027, suggesting a strengthening balance sheet [2][9].