Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.736 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.5% to 503 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue was 949 million yuan, down 13.5%, with a net profit of 28 million yuan, down 84.0%. Due to rising costs and increased competition, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards, with new estimates for net profit at 672 million yuan for 2025, 803 million yuan for 2026, and 927 million yuan for 2027. The expected EPS for these years is 1.59, 1.90, and 2.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.4, 21.2, and 18.4 times [5][8][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.736 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 503 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.5%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 949 million yuan, down 13.5%, and net profit was 28 million yuan, down 84.0% [5][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while Q1 2025 saw an improvement in gross margin to 77.5%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points [6][12]. - The company’s operating expenses increased in 2024, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising by 2.7, 1.5, and -0.3 percentage points respectively. In Q1 2025, these ratios further increased by 9.3, 5.5, and 3.1 percentage points, indicating higher costs due to intensified market competition [6][12]. Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand, Winona, focuses on sensitive skin solutions, enhancing customer value through a "single product + set" strategy. The second-tier brands, including Winona Baby and Aikeman, have shown strong performance in their respective markets. The company is also optimizing its online channels and has begun to enter mainstream beauty channels in Thailand [7][8]. - In 2024, the revenue from the skincare segment was 4.801 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while the makeup segment saw significant growth, achieving 551 million yuan, an increase of 226.5% [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is 170.67 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 40.29 yuan. The stock has a one-year high of 74.00 yuan and a low of 37.46 yuan [1][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.4, 21.2, and 18.4 respectively, indicating a reasonable valuation based on expected earnings growth [5][8]. Summary of Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.277 billion yuan in 2025, 7.023 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.962 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 672 million yuan, 803 million yuan, and 927 million yuan [8][11]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 73.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to improve gradually from 10.5% in 2025 to 11.5% in 2027 [8][12].
贝泰妮：公司信息更新报告：2025Q1业绩承压，期待调整后利润弹性释放-20250429