Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming national subsidy policies, which are anticipated to stimulate consumer demand and support sales growth in the smart mattress sector [5][6]. - The company has established a strong product matrix centered around smart mattresses, indicating a positive growth outlook in this segment [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [5]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 50.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Product and Sales Channel Analysis - The company’s main product categories, including mattresses, bed frames, and sofas, showed stable sales growth, with mattress sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on upgrading offline stores and expanding online channels, with significant growth in e-commerce sales [5]. - The company has established a diversified sales network covering both domestic and international markets, with a notable increase in overseas sales [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.99 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.27 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, driven by its strong brand and product capabilities, alongside the anticipated recovery in downstream demand due to national subsidy policies [6][8].
慕思股份：前瞻布局智能床垫赛道，期待国补政策催化-20250429