医药关税影响有限，MNC或遭掣肘

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The impact of US pharmaceutical tariffs on Chinese companies is limited, with a focus on domestic substitution, innovative drugs, and domestic demand [35][36]. - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is expanding, primarily driven by imports from Europe, with a projected deficit of 118.6 billion USD in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [37]. - If tariffs are implemented, large multinational pharmaceutical companies may face significant challenges, but the transfer of the industry chain back to the US is unlikely to happen quickly due to high costs and long construction cycles [38]. Summary by Sections 1. US Pharmaceutical Market Trade Deficit - The US pharmaceutical trade deficit is projected to reach 118.6 billion USD in 2024, with imports at approximately 213 billion USD and exports at 94.4 billion USD, marking a 20% increase in imports and a 5% increase in exports year-on-year [6][37]. - The US maintains a trade surplus with China in pharmaceuticals, with imports from China accounting for only 1.5% of total pharmaceutical imports [36][16]. 2. Potential Tariff Impacts - The report discusses the potential for tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with Trump threatening a 25% tariff to encourage domestic production [17][19]. - Most pharmaceutical sectors are currently exempt from tariffs, but medical devices and some excipients are facing increased tariffs [19][20]. 3. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data indicates that tariffs have had a limited impact on China's pharmaceutical exports to the US, with exports continuing to grow despite previous tariff threats [22][23]. - The report suggests that tariffs may benefit domestic substitution efforts in China, particularly in medical devices and innovative drugs, while also reshaping export and domestic sales patterns [25][28].