公用事业行业专题报告：新形势下，关注电力及燃气板块优质机会

Group 1: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is supported by a series of policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon energy transitions, with significant emphasis on the development of hydropower projects [11][12][13] - China's hydropower installed capacity is projected to grow from 370 million kilowatts at the end of 2020 to 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% [12][15] - Major hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Yalong River Company have plans for new installations, indicating future growth potential in hydropower capacity [15][19] - The hydropower sector has maintained profitability, with a revenue of 178.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 47.9 billion yuan, up 20.18% [19][21] - Nine out of eleven listed hydropower companies have returned profits to shareholders through cash dividends, with significant payout ratios, indicating a commitment to sharing development results with investors [19][21] Group 2: Coal Power - The establishment of a coal power capacity price mechanism is expected to assist in the recovery of fixed costs for compliant coal power plants, with a standard fixed cost of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year [24][26] - The capacity price mechanism will allow coal power companies to recover a portion of their fixed costs, with most regions set to recover around 30% to 50% of these costs in 2024-2025 [26][27] - The auxiliary service market is being continuously improved, with policies in place to enhance the compensation mechanisms for various types of power auxiliary services [29][30] - The average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.28% year-on-year, which is expected to positively impact the performance of coal power companies [38][39] Group 3: Natural Gas - The development of the industrial economy is anticipated to boost natural gas demand, with a projected consumption of 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [51][53] - A series of policies aimed at stimulating industrial growth are expected to enhance natural gas demand, with the 2025 government work report emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand [53][65] - The orderly advancement of the natural gas price linkage mechanism is expected to help gas companies manage procurement costs effectively, promoting healthy development in the gas sector [57][60]